Round 2: Las Vegas vs Tampa Bay

[Jian - Knights GM]

Who wins?

[Jian - Knights GM]

Went with Tritons. I think this will be a close series. DBaum and Teeters cancel each other, Heath contains Lee, and L-Train contains Rajeev. Tampa has homecourt so give the series to them.

[Dom-SunkingsGM]

This might really well go down to homecourt advantage. But I can see both teams winning this series. LV is hot lately while the Tritons have had their problems come playoff time. Then again, they are the reigning champs and very tough to beat. I think this will go to at least 6 games. With the Tritons probably coming out as the winner due to homecourt.

[Eric - Archers GM]

DBaum and Teeters cancel each other

See, in my mind, DBaum is going to score well against Teeters but Teeters draws hella fouls. Baum's foul issues make him < Teeters. I think Teeters will not be as efficient and will score lower than season average which is great if the fickle foul gods put Baum on the sidelines. If he stays in the whole game, I think Baum actually gets the nod here much as it pains an "old school" guy to say.

Baum is legit two way in a big way. Teeters has gaps in his D and has slowed a bit so I think that if that foul wedge can be driven in deep, that will help. If not, trouble.

Heath contains Lee

Nah, I think Lee will go hog wild and shoot a zillion times. I think he won't make that many and will suck shots away from D-Baum because he can easily get some space on Heath. Trick is that Heath plays sticky D so I see Lee as definitely below average on FG% in this series. I think Heath comes back with a vengeance on Lee's pedestrian D and makes up for lost time.

I'm seeing probably the same 20+ FGA for Lee but well below 47% that he's shot so far. I see Heath below his 11.7 FGA that he attempted in season but better than 49% he shot. So if Lee goes 8-20 on average and Heath goes 5-10 then you look to other point sources... Lee will attempt more 3FGA but almost double but make less so I think the advantage will go to Lee at the position comparison, he will have to get his by brute force and take away from more efficient matchups. He might win the position but hurt the team.

L-Train contains Rajeev.

I see the same problem as with Lee. L-Train has the foot speed to keep up with Seifert which is good and his blocks will hurt, but he won't be able to really limit Seifert's jumper. I think Seifert will probably average double digit attempts and hit ~50% ... trick is, with that low of a shot volume, if L-Train blocks one or more of them, that's much greater reduction in FG% per block.

I think Seifert can hold L-Train under 50% and L-Train will see about his average or better in terms of FGA... IDK if he's compensating but L-Train is attempting 16 FGA now. Then again, he was about 34 points of QKN faster so of course L-Train had the step to get those shots. Look for 5-13 or 6-13 games from L-Train. However, if you can put in a block in the mix and force 4/5-13 games, that's a win.

They'll probably average out to the same number of FGM though so what will tip it is FTA and 3FGA. That's where I give the nod to Seifert with his willing three point touch which I think will be more consistent than L-Trains ability to draw fouls.

Tampa has homecourt so give the series to them.

Agreed here. With edges at SG and SF, Las Vegas will have to play ugly and Tampa is great at limiting shots with their 12th best DRB and 5th best opponent FG%. That means that Vegas gets ONE shot for the possession most times and will have to either steal possessions (LVB 4th in steasl vs. Tampa 1st in TO). So they might have to compensate by pressing (and fouling more) or crashing boards (leaving Tampa's very potent wings to get out on the break). Tampa's bench is superior too.

Tampa gets the series here but IDK that Tom will see what he wants to see out of a game. DON'T BLINK FIRST TOM!